Science update: peace with the Earth
Discerning the signals
Science update with Stephen Hinton
Here are some recent developments I find relevant, coming from a scientific angle. These news items and research reports provide a set of weak signals, which we can observe and take a step back to try to discern a bigger picture.
Signals seem to be indicating that anthropological pressure on the natural environment and climate system risk undermining the economic system as well as the food production system. Several of the reports below are calling for a change of focus, from economic growth that benefits a few, to transforming systems that provide the basics of life for all. Trends are pointing to the increasing risks of continuing.
Local authorities seem to be of a similar mind. In my home town, the local council for the built environment, where I am involved for the left party, has put climate adaptation as one of the top priorities for its planning 2025.
I discuss the implications here, of viewing progress as “betterment for the many” rather than improvements in technology, that may or may not mean a better life.
As the summer arrives in the northern hemisphere, reports come of deaths from excess heat.
This article provides a summary of current status. Our bodies can only survive in a specific range of temperatures. As temperatures rise, we expect to see an increase in deaths, especially among the poor who have least shade and who work outside. The trend is serious and worrying. As my local politician colleagues conclude, adaptation of the built environment and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are essential.
Climate change puts half of all US houses in danger
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-home-prices-housing-realtor-com/
The increasing risk from climate change is causing insurance prices to rise. In turn, this might affect house prices which are one of the main foundations of the financial system modern economies rely on.
Reduction in air pollution heating the Earth faster.
Recent tightening of restrictions on sulphur emissions from shipping have significantly reduced pollution over the oceans. A new report concludes that these particles were actually shielding from global warming and there is now an observable increase in the rate of global warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8
Ecosystem degradation will affect GDP negatively.
Reported in the Guardian a few months ago, a study by the UK Green Finance Institute found that, contrary to many people’s understanding that economic growth is obtained by degrading natural resources and converting them to money, destruction of nature will actually undermine economic growth and cause a slump.
A good life for all is possible - within planetary boundaries.
Research published in the Journal of Cleaner Production has looked into the possibilities to provide a good basic standard of living for all within planetary boundaries. The researchers say that with a fossil-free energy system, and an essentially vegan diet as well as no additional cropland conversion it would be possible. Carbon dioxide emissions, biodiversity, phosphorus and nitrogen emissions would need to be further reduced, mainly by improved agricultural practices and material circularity.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624008953
But focus on food production is essential
These conclusions are backed up by a new analysis of the effects of global heating on food production and the effects of food production on global heating. To stop this spiral, the paper suggests, a radical food system transformation
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-65274-z
Another paper in nature analyses data to investigate the extent to which declines in food production can be attributed to climate change. The analysis shows a strong correlation between climate change and declining food security, again calling for the food production systems transformation
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-08696-x?fromPaywallRec=false
Investment in food production transformation, in a built environment that provides a better life for the many and in reducing anthropological pressures on the environment are becoming urgent.